Monday, April 11, 2005

Why you dont need to fear the draft

One thing that has become a recent thorn in my side is people who absolutely down to their core, believe that a draft is coming. I hear things from "We are using the reserves now, they are running out of soldiers" to "Bush is Hitler Spawn". Several things come to mind to smack these people upside the head and I will cover those first. There was a book I was reading through at the book store the other day and I'll be damned if I can remember the title but the essence of the book was that there are several types of conflicts. There is the A army, an army whose sole purpose would be similar to the British Red Coats during the revolutionary war. They were clearly the superior army in technology, numbers, supplies, arms and support. Most people (and rightfully so) said that the revolutionaries could not win this war. Which if we had fought the same way as the British they were right. But we had a C army. A C army is more loosely organized than an A army, an although lacking in the aforementioned supports they traditionally can take out any A army while still maintaining a loose order because of the inflexibility of the A army. The A army is focused on a larger scale conflict where C is focused more on a battle by battle scenario and has large felxibility to change. Now I went right from A to C and left out B. For a very good reason. A B army is more in line of what we have right now. It is well suited to go into situations of C armies (think the terrorists in Iraq) or an A army (think Iraq during the Gulf War) but still is at a disadvantage to each if it does not have superior supports. Now his theory contends that America is attempting something not done before with the military. The reservists and navy are assembling as a B force, while the non-reserve units (many of which are not currently deployed) as assembling with the Air Force as our A army. This is in response to China and Iran building up an A army while we are occupied in Afghanistan and Iraq. There was, of course, a much clearer explanation of all this but the general idea is there.

Now having said all that, also note that we are no where near fully deployed of troops and we are still preparing more Iraqi troops every day. The idea that we will ever withdraw all troops from Iraq is like saying the national budget will ever shrink. Democrat or Republican the budget always expands and it is a true shame. Over 50 years later we are still in Germany. Over 30 years we are still in Korea. Almost 15 in Kuwait.....The list is near endless.

However the idea of a draft, aside form the fact that it would be met with a near revolt, is the fact that it would kill our economy. Assuming a draft took place they would draft everyone of age up to 25 to get a good amount (if they truly were in that dire of straights). Now being 22 and a career started in a specialized position for my employer, a 2+ year tour of duty from a draft would cripple his store. I am the only store based sales person there, he would have to hire another person to take my place and note that it was temporary to hire work. Temporary if I came back, to hire if I came back draped in a flag. Now he would have to hold my job while I was gone. Imagine how many 18-25 year olds there are out there and how many would have to have their jobs held. There are more jobs than there is people out there right now and this would only make the situation even worse.

Now skip ahead a few years. Veterans are returning, 18 year olds are now 20 after 2 years of active duty. They go back to their previous spots. Most have a bank of cash from enlistment pay and they go to college. Effectively we have just turned the entire professional world into a 2 year shortage of qualified people. Especially with baby boomers retiring in larger numbers than people are entering fields, all the sudden we have 2 years of no gain in employee's while at the same time still losing the same, if not more due to death, retirement, career switches...All the sudden we might not find ourselves with doctors, dentists, lawyers (I know what you are thinking, but we still really need them, even the ambulance chasers). Most small businesses are started by the young crowd in that age.

Economically the US could not survive the collapse of this large segment of the populace just "dissapearing". I don't expect most liberals to understand this, as many lack a basic understanding of how business works. Or at least they dont lead on like they do.

If anything, the only president I could ever see imposing a draft, would be a democrat who does not understand the economics behind it.
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